Truth About It» The Washington Wizards: From Blunder to Thunder?

The Wizards have struggled this year, no question about it. The team has won just 13 games and is still hopelessly searching for its first road win. Their next opportunity for that elusive victory away from home comes on Sunday, February 13 versus the woeful Cleveland Cavaliers— a team nursing a 24-game losing streak.

Back on October 20, 2010, the crew at Truth About It.net gave their“crystal ball visions” of the Wizards’ regular season record for 2010-11. Here is what they looked like:

• Kyle Weidie–34 wins
• Rashad Mobley–30 wins
• Adam McGinnis–40 wins
• John Townsend–40 wins
• Arish Narayen–41 wins
• Beckley Mason–36 wins

I might choose to pass on the Buffalo wings and beer for the Super Bowl, instead opting to find a spot on my couch with an extra helping of Washington Wizards crow. This team is headed nowhere fast this season… but regular season performance in one year isn’t necessarily predictive of success and achievement in the next.

On the lighter side, here are the ten biggest single-season turnarounds in NBA history:

{Chart adapted from data gathered byBerry Tramel, NewsOK}

Two additional notes concerning single-season turnarounds… the 2002 New Jersey Nets won 52 games, an improvement of 26 wins, with NBA veteran Jason Kidd running the show.

Last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder increased their win total by 27 with virtually the same roster that produced a 23-59 season the year before. The biggest offseason moves for that Thunder team were drafting James Harden, and signing Etan Thomas and Kevin Ollie— Thomas and Ollie played less than 600 combined minutes.

Are the new-look Wizards the next Oklahoma City Thunder? No, not necessarily. But the fans, media, and coaches might need to give this squad a little time to grow. (Everyone’s patience is running thin, but we have to look at this year asthenew beginning. It is the start of the rebuild. Year one.) Only Rashard Lewis started on an NBA team last season. We have never seen a Washington Wizards team that has looked like this… but the players have never seen the minutes, opportunities, and situations that they are living each and every day this year, either.

In the chart above, six of the most impressive franchise turnarounds came at the hands of one superstar player (Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, Steve Nash, and David Robinson). The Wizards already have that once-in-a-lifetime player in John Wall, so it would appear that they are on the fast-track to relevance. But just one superstar doesn’t win a championship.

With a little luck in this year’s lottery and the continued development of its young (or not-so-young) players, the Wizards might find themselves in the middle of a super, storied improvement. If the team can gel and find an identity as this season comes to a close, and continue to develop in the offseason, maybe we’ll finally see some magic next year.

Sure, it’s early, but here’s to the team’s roundball revival in 2012.

Speaking of development, I caught up with Etan Thomas who was in D.C. from the 2001-02 season through the 2008-09 season. He has had the opportunity to watch Andray Blatche, Nick Young, and JaVale McGee grow during their years in the Association. Kyle Weidie said Thomas’ answers were“diplomatically optimistic.” For better or for worse, the old poet has me hoop dreaming.

***

{Top image courtesy of Adam McGinnis, video via John Townsend.}

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Truth About It» Visual Study Guide: When JaVale McGee Can Dribble& When He Can’t

From the lips of Flip Saunders on Friday night:

“I think everyone in this room and in the arena does not like the fact that {JaVale McGee} gets the ball at three quarters court and thinks that he’s a 6’2″ guard and starts dribbling.”

Seems like a valid concern, perhaps a good teaching point. So, in hopes of helping the student, we have a handy visual coaching aid below (with the setting of D.C.’s Union Station).

First…

The bench reaction to JaVale McGee’s dribbling turnover, to which Flip Saunders was referring, against the Orlando Magic:

{via@CJ_202SB}

Now…

When JaVale McGee CANNOT Dribble.

In this picture, McGee is 7’1″… Nope, can’t dribble three quarters court here, sure can’t. There isn’t a more oblivious basketball play than when 7’1″ McGee makes his hubris emitting forays in the open floor.

Moving on…

When JaVale McGee CAN Dribble.

Here, he’s clearly 6’2″, just a few inches above Saunders’ 5’11″. Dribbling is totally cool to do in his coaching situation… full speed ahead.

Look for Trevor Booker running the floor and taking the 7’1″ JaVale McGee’s minutes with hustle and by keeping his game simple and confidently taking offensive chances within the offense, but mostly creating points for himself by playing at the rim. Yep, 6’2″ Epic Vale, Cook Book would be totally fun to run with and pass to the ball to, especially because he plays hard-nosed defense.

Back to Reality.
(an old screen capture, but a frequently occurring scene)

And for something that 7’1″ McGee can do that 6’2″ McGee can’t,
this dunk:

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Truth About It» Arenas and Young: No Longer Teammates, But Still Friends

Nick Young and Gilbert Arenas were close… still are. When Arenas was traded, before he left town as quickly as a plane could carry him to Orlando, he knocked on Young’s door to tell him the news, and a goodbye. He didn’t even say goodbye to his family (andnow we kind of know why), but still… point is, Nick and Gil were a close pair of teammates. Here’s a link toYoung talking about Arenas before the Wizards played the Miami Heat on the day of the trade.

Midway through pre-game warm-ups before tip-off of Arenas’ return to Washington as a member of the Orlando Magic, a basketball“mysteriously” went astray from the other side of the floor, bouncing right near Arenas. None other than Young surfaced to claim the errant ball, smile on his face and eager to catch up with his friend. Below are a couple pictures of their encounter…

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Truth About It» A Wizards Loss To Denver In Black& White

It didn’t seem like a winning night for the Washington Wizards as they prepared to face the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday.The movement of the team during warm-ups, the faces of the players, you could tell it was their fourth game in five nights. They weren’t exactly physically weary or mentally downtrodden in appearance, but the air of the team reflected the atmosphere in the Verizon Center, dead… like that oddly quiet elevator ride. Even Baltimore’s Carmelo Anthony being in town barely drew a response from fans, most electing to give him the Prokhorov treatment.

Toss out thebox score from the game. The final was 120-109 Denver, but I could convince you otherwise. Washington led 56-46 in points in the paint, 32-8 in fastbreak points, they shot 51.2-percent from the field and made 23 of 27 free-throws. The Wizards were only out-rebounded by three (39-36), all in the defensive boards category, had the same amount of assists as Denver (23), and two less turnovers (15-13). Washington blocked nine shots, which may have contributed to the Nuggets’ 13-2 lead in second chance points, because both teams pulled seven offensive rebounds. Andray Blatche’s first quarter shot chart even looked like this:

Too bad after going 6-8 from the field in the first period, Blatche went 2-6 over the rest of the game (9-9 in free-throws on evening, though, for 25 total points).

The Wizards lost because they were the worse team.Denver was able to move around at will for the duration, earning themselves 12 made threes out of 23 attempts… essentially the difference. Washington only made two out of their 13 three-point attempts. The Nuggets always had the game in hand— winning the first quarter 33-26, the second 35-30 and the third 28-23— because the Wizard were never really mentally around in the first place. Yi Jianlian and Nick Young each had ten points a piece in the fourth as Washington“won” that final period 30-24.

The numbers are convoluted, but the results are there in black and white.

In a related matter, sitting baseline for the game, I decided to shoot most of the photos I took in black& white… someAl Harrington/Heckler photoswere clearly shot in color, capturing pretty much the only fan emotion on the night (aside from a collective  disappointing utter from the crowd when two Nuggets on the bench did NOT get shown in jest on the Jumbotron Kiss Cam).

Sure, with a digital camera I could take every single photo in color and convert to B&W using Photoshop, but I preferred the forced nature of a monochromatic camera setting… as the Wizards will ultimately be judged by wins and losses.

A hotly contested Nick Young jumper.

John Wall glides to the basket.

Nick Young keeps flying after a dunk.

{photos: Kyle Weidie, Truth About It.net}

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Truth About It» ShareBullets: Portraits Of A Young Team& Wizards Picture Leftovers

Some leftover pictures, commentary, and links at the bottom…

Kevin Seraphin.

At some point during the Celtics game, mid-third quarter, John Wall expressed dismay about a questionable call that didn’t go the Wizards’ way… that’s a $50 fine face, perhaps.

On Boston’s subsequent out-of-bounds play, Wall did what he usually does in bouts of heightened emotion, good or bad… he pulled his shorts up.

Unfortunately, that kept Wall from playing defense, such as hand-carrying the ball and getting his hands in the passing lanes.

Rajon Rondo was easily able to get it to Kevin Garnett under the basket…

… But Andray Blatche, yes,thatAndray Blatche, was able to recover and get the block.

Here’s when JaVale McGee, per usual, just lost track of who he was supposed to be guarding… his back was completely turned. The cross-court pass easily went to Nene of the Nuggets and he easily dunked it.

In most cases, this dunk wouldn’t be considered‘on’ on JaVale… but since it was his responsibility, and since the ball smacked him in the head on the way down, we’ll just go ahead and say it was.

Hey Vince Carter… what’s happening?

Mean mugging a big ticket.

This picture is actually illegal in three states, so if you are in one of them, please leave.

No, this is not an offensive rebound. This is Rashard Lewis just dropping in a bucket,akaan old man’s dunk. Get off his back though, he’s been in the league since high school.

Andray begged to hear and/or tell a secret from far away, Channing didn’t oblige.

It would be totally funny if I told you the ball went into the ref’s crotch. Right?…Right?

Nick Young loves himself after dunks.

A man fromTurkeyPoland, a man from China and Andray Blatche walk into a bar.

No one man from Turkey should be this excited about Vince Carter doing something.

Funny thing is, this is exactly how Nick Young looks at himself in the mirror.

This is Andray Blatche dribbling, typically.

LINKS.

John Wall could participate in the Skills Challenge at NBA All-Star Weekend… if you vote him in.Chris Paul will definitely be participating, now fans must choose four more entrants amongst Wall, Baron Davis, Tyreke Evans, Derrick Rose, Tony Parker, Derek Fisher, Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook. I voted for Wall, Rose, Curry and Westbrook.
{WashingtonWizards.com}

Anthony Marci rips into the Wizards’ defense at HoopsWorld.He writes:

“Many of their frontcourt players exhibit a complete failure to see the ball when on the opposite side of the floor. They do not lane clog and they seem overly concerned with guarding their own man instead of embracing the fundamental team defensive principal of stopping the ball first.”

{HoopsWorld}

Kevin Broom of theWashington Post’sfan blog outlines that Nick Young’s great statistical season is likely fool’s gold.This goes to highlight the fact that I’m hearing that the Wizards would trade Young in a heartbeat, with sentiment from the organization reflecting the thought that guys like Young do not win championships. Not sure how you can deduce that at this point though.
{Box Seats}

There is, however, a decent case to be made for Young…From my optimistic standpoint: he has gotten good at hitting the corner three (something necessary to pair with Wall), is improving on defense, and you always need a guy who can create his own shot and finish in the open court, even if the bulk of his offensive game should be molded after Rip Hamilton.
{Bullets Forever}

Gilbert Arenas is easy to pick on, partially because he’s picked on others for so many years.The Reliable Source, which is theWashington Post’sversion of TMZ, has used their one-sided“reliable source” to again convey what’s going on in Arenas’ personal life with a woman who may or may not be crazy when Arenas may or may not be crazy himself. This time, the select quote, purportedly from Arenas in reference to his kids and purportedly said to his long-time fiancee/girlfriend, Laura Govan, will not be submitted to any“Father of The Year” award contests any time soon…“You had them, you watch them.”
{The Reliable Source}

Of course, this comes on the heels of another gossip site reporting that Govan evidently cleaned out Arenas’ Great Falls home, including“robbing” his shark that cost around $6,500 a month to maintain(source: The Reliable Source), after Arenas evidently cut off communication, etc. with Govan after being traded to Orlando. The Wizards press lounge got a good chuckle out of this story during halftime of Tuesday’s loss to the Denver Nuggets (I know, what great people we are by laughing at the self-induced expense of others… also, we are human), with one member of the organization expressing joking relief that Arenas’ personal life was no longer their problem.
{Terez Owens}

Speaking of more Gilbert Arenas, Scott Schroeder reports that Javaris Crittenton could soon sign with a D-League team, likely the Dakota Wizards, the team to which current Washington Wizard Hamady N’Diaye is assigned to.
{FanHouse}

Congrats to Mike Jones… the former Wizards beat reporter for theWashington Timeswill be the new Redskins beat reporter for theWashington Post.
{Mr. Irrelevant}

JaVale McGee dunking over a local radio personality.

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Truth About It» The Rebounding Darrell Walker…and then there’s Andray Blatche

This Skybox basketball card commemoratesDarrell Walker‘s rebounding prowess as a guard for the Washington Bullets in the early 1990s. In’90-91, Walker led all guards with 7.8 rebounds per 36 minutes, amongst those who played at least 15 minutes per game and achieved at least 400 rebounds. When strictly looking at per game stats, according to thesearch results at Basketball-Reference.com,Tyrone Corbinof the Minnesota Timberwolves averaged more rebounds per game as a guard, but he was more a swing-forward to Walker’s true ability to play the point. {Note:Rounded, both Walker andMagic Johnsonaveraged 7.0 boards per game in '90-91, but Walker was a fraction above Magic.}

In Washington Bullets/Wizards franchise history, according toBBR, only four guards have played in more than 60 games in a season, averaged over 25 minutes per game and over five rebounds per 36 minutes. Those players were:Larry Hughes(’02-03 to’04-05),Michael Jordan(’01-02 and’02-03),Darrell Walker(’88-89 to’90-91) andEarl Monroe(’67-’68).

From theBBR databasespanning from 1946-47 to the present day, only two NBA guards have appeared in more than 70 games, had a Total Rebounding Percentage (TRB%:an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor)above 13-percent and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DRB%) above 20-percent.

Those two guards areJason Kidd(2006-07: 13.2– TRB%; 20.8– DRB%) andDarrell Walker(1989-90: 13.4– TRB%; 20.4– DRB%).

I mention all of this not just to put a classic basketball card of a guard yearning for a rebound on display, but to also note that this season’s Washington Wizards are the tied with the Phoenix Suns for the second worst DRB% in the entire NBA at just 70.6-percent. The Golden State Warriors secure an estimated league-worst 68.5-percent of the defensive rebounds available to them.

This season,Andray Blatcheis sporting a TRB% of 13.3 and a DRB% of 19.2— his career averages in those respective categories: 13.7 and 18.6. One conclusion is that the 6’4″ Walker always worked harder on the boards than Blatche ever has… for his 6’11″ or 7’0″ height.

However, there are so many other factors which go into rebounding statistics that we won’t get too caught up in these numbers other than to point out that on Friday, Washington got out-rebounded 55-43 by the Oklahoma City Thunder; Blatche had two rebounds in almost 31 minutes on the court. On Saturday the Wizards were beaten on the boards 44-35 by Memphis; Blatche performed better with nine rebounds in almost 33 minutes of action…

But you tell me if 11 total boards in just over 63 minutes is getting the job done.

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Truth About It» Wizards Synergy Good& Bad

“Synergy” is an over-used buzzword, but it’s also a damn fineNBA statistics web site. So let’s use Synergy Sports Technology to take a quick snap-shot of some Wizards numbers to date.

This season, the Wizards’ defense has often been better than the offense. With the ball, on plays that have ended in a FGA, TO or FTs, Washington has tallied 0.89 points per possession (PPP), ranked 27th out of 30 NBA teams. They score 42.9-percent of the time and turn the ball over 13.7-percent of the time in these situations.

Washington’s overall offensive rating (ORtg– points produced per 100 possessions, which is calculated differently and likely includes other factors outside of plays that end in a FGA, TO or FTs) sits in line with these focused numbers; their 102.6 ORtg also ranks 27th.

The Wizards are particularly bad at scoring on post ups— which comes as no surprise considering the roster construction— chalking up a measly 0.70 PPP over 318 opportunities, a rate that’s ranked dead last in the league.Andray Blatchehas produced 0.64 PPP on 121 post up opportunities,JaVale McGeehas produced 0.66 PPP on 64 post ups,Yi Jianlian0.50 PPP on 28 post ups… you get the point, the cupboards are bare, the well is dry and the children are starving.

In contrast,  the Wizards fare above average (at least in ranking comparison) on Pick-and-Roll ball handler plays on offense, producing 0.82 PPP over 567 possessions, which is ranked 12th in the NBA.John Wallclearly needs some work in this area, producing just 0.69 PPP as the offensive P&R ball handler, which ranks 106 in the league.Kirk Hinrich, on the other hand, produces 0.95 PPP as the P&R ball handler, ranked 17th. This is simply a difference in seasoned decision-making that will eventually come for Wall.

On defense,Washington allows 0.90 PPP, which is ranked 16th in the league— clearly better than being the 27th most efficient team at scoring. Who said thatFlip Saunderswasn’t a defensive coach? Wizards opponents score 42.8-percent of the time and turn the ball over on 13.4-percent of the aforementioned play types.

It’s worth noting that Washington’s DRtg (defensive points allowed per 100 possessions– ORtg and DRtg taken fromBasketball-Reference.com) is tied with the Denver Nuggets in ranking 21st league-wide; they give up an estimated 109.1 points per 100 possessions.

As you probably could have guessed, the Wizards don’t fare well in defending the post either. Via Synergy, on possessions that, again, end in a FGA, TO or FTs, the Wizards have allowed 0.93 PPP over 455 post up possessions, a rate that’s ranked 27th in the NBA.

Now some individual post-up defensive numbers:

• Andray Blatche– 0.93 PPP over 72 post-up defensive possessions.
• JaVale McGee– 0.96 PPP over 100 post-up defensive possessions.
• Kevin Seraphin– 0.85 PPP over 27 post-up defensive possessions.
• Hilton Armstrong- 0.93 PPP over 43 post-up defensive possessions.
• Yi Jianlian- 0.96 PPP over 28 post-up defensive possessions.
• Trevor Booker- 1.00 PPP over 30 post-up defensive possessions.

The acquisition of veteran tricks-of-the-trade and some moxie would be welcome from this group. Seraphin’s tough presence and brute strength is a fair sight toward the future, especially when you consider that he’s barely known the organized game of basketball. He’s got so much to learn, but it’s good that his slate is relatively clean.

It shouldn’t surprise that the Wizards perform even better than average when defending individual plays instead of team plays. Against isolations, Washington allows 0.83 PPP, ranked 13th, and against spot-ups, they allow 0.97 PPP, ranked 12.

The Portland Trailblazers, overall, rank 13th in defending plays that end in a FGA, TO or FTs by allowing 0.89 PPP (compared to the 0.90 from the Wizards that ranks 16th). However, on spot-ups, the Blazers allow 1.03 PPP, ranked 22.

Are the Wizards better at closing out and contesting shooters? Or is Washington’s team defense so bad as a result of players tending to worry more about their own man, thus making the spot-up opportunities that exist for their opponents to be not as open?

How about the New Orleans Hornets? Overall, they rank fourth in defense, only allowing opponents to score 0.86 PPP. But on isolations, the Hornets rank ten spots lower than the Wizards at 23rd in the league, allowing 0.89 PPP. And it’s not like New Orleans has faced much less isolations, actually seeing more with 583 chances as opposed to 567 for Washington.

Ideally, teams would rather force their opponents into more isolation play. So under first-year coach Monty Williams, the Hornets will gladly trail the Wizards’ ability to stop individuals if their organization and coaching propels their overall defense to a top-5 unit in the league. Also worth nothing that New Orleans’ 0.93 PPP produced on offense ranks 15th in the NBA; poor offense from the Wizards coupled with their lack of awareness really puts their defense in a hole on most, if not all, nights.

These are simply numbers of a young team, a reflection of growing pains. But they’re also reflections to keep an eye on, because it’s more than just about player implementation, it’s about if those players can realize when they are making mistakes and if they’re adhering to astute coaching philosophy and a good game plan. It’s about“Synergy.”

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